Final tracked odds
As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 22%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 18 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
22%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | 22% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 22% |
| 2026-10-18 | 19% |
| 2026-10-17 | 22% |
| 2026-10-16 | 19% |
| 2026-10-14 | 32% |
| 2026-10-11 | 40% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 22%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 40% on October 11, 2026 to 22% on October 19, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 19% and 40%. The final reading of 22% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026” for 6 days, since October 11, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 22%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 40% to 22%, ranging between 19% and 40% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.