Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 29 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 3, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 6% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 8% |
| 2026-09-04 | 8% |
| 2026-09-03 | 8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 10% |
| 2026-08-14 | 36% |
| 2026-08-13 | 42% |
| 2026-08-12 | 46% |
| 2026-08-06 | 76% |
| 2026-08-05 | 76% |
| 2026-08-03 | 64% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on August 3, 2026 to 6% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 58 points.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 76%. The current reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026” for 11 days, since August 3, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 64% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.