US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 52% on July 22, 2026 to 76% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 24 points.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 76%. The final reading of 76% sits at the top of that range.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since July 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 3, 2026

76%

Final tracked odds

As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 76%.

▲ 5 since the previous update. ▲ 26 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 2	Today	Move
Yes	70%	76%	▲ 5

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-03	76%
2026-08-02	70%
2026-08-01	48%
2026-07-23	50%
2026-07-22	52%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 52% on July 22, 2026 to 76% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 24 points.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 76%. The final reading of 76% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31” for 5 days, since July 22, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 76%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 52% to 76%, ranging between 48% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.