The Morning Line

What will Apple say during their next earnings call?

Everything Else · tracked since September 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026

96%

Final tracked odds

As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds make iPhone 18 the most likely outcome at 96%.

▲ 8 since the previous update. ▲ 26 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 96% on October 5, 2026. iPhone 18 won.

How the odds have moved

iPhone 18SiriTariffManufacturingMac Studio
tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25Sep 29Oct 5iPhone 18 — Sep 23: 89%iPhone 18 — Sep 24: 66%iPhone 18 — Sep 25: 90%iPhone 18 — Sep 28: 70%iPhone 18 — Sep 29: 87%iPhone 18 — Oct 5: 96%96%Siri — Sep 23: 73%Siri — Sep 28: 88%Siri — Sep 29: 88%Siri — Oct 5: 92%Tariff — Sep 23: 80%Tariff — Sep 28: 70%Tariff — Sep 29: 85%Tariff — Oct 5: 90%Manufacturing — Sep 23: 73%Manufacturing — Sep 28: 86%Manufacturing — Sep 29: 86%Manufacturing — Oct 5: 85%Mac Studio — Oct 5: 84%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeSep 29TodayMove
iPhone 1887%96%▲ 8
Siri88%92%▲ 5
Tariff85%90%▲ 5
Manufacturing86%85%▼ 1
Mac Studio—84%—
Fold / Folding / Foldable68%62%▼ 7
Broadcom44%40%▼ 4
Full history table
DateiPhone 18SiriTariffManufacturingMac StudioFold / Folding / FoldableBroadcom
2026-10-0596%92%90%85%84%62%40%
2026-09-2987%88%85%86%—68%44%
2026-09-2870%88%70%86%—70%44%
2026-09-2590%————80%—
2026-09-2466%————52%—
2026-09-23 *89%73%80%73%—3%3%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

What will Apple say during their next earnings call — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, iPhone 18 led at 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
What will Apple say during their next earnings call — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on September 24, 2026 to 96% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 30 points.
What will Apple say during their next earnings call — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 66% and 96%. The final reading of 96% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will Apple say during their next earnings call” for 5 days, since September 24, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, iPhone 18 leads the field at 96%. The final tracked chance for iPhone 18 has risen from 66% to 96%, ranging between 66% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.