Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 3, 2026
Final tracked odds
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 84% on August 3, 2026. M&A / Acquisition won.
| Outcome | Aug 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| M&A / Acquisition | 84% | 84% | — |
| Inflation | 80% | 78% | ▼ 2 |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 74% | 74% | — |
| Catastrophe | 72% | 68% | ▼ 5 |
| Headwind | 57% | 64% | ▲ 7 |
| Snapshot | 47% | 46% | ▼ 1 |
| Iran / Middle East | 16% | 16% | — |
| Pet Insurance | 16% | 12% | ▼ 4 |
| Date | M&A / Acquisition | Inflation | AI / Artificial Intelligence | Catastrophe | Headwind | Snapshot | Iran / Middle East | Pet Insurance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 84% | 78% | 74% | 68% | 64% | 46% | 16% | 12% |
| 2026-08-02 | 84% | 80% | 74% | 72% | 57% | 47% | 16% | 16% |
| 2026-08-01 | 86% | 81% | 74% | 62% | 55% | 47% | 17% | 18% |
| 2026-07-31 | 80% | 81% | 74% | 60% | 55% | 48% | 17% | 16% |
| 2026-07-30 | 82% | 81% | 76% | 52% | 53% | 34% | 17% | 16% |
| 2026-07-29 | 90% | 82% | 76% | 50% | 53% | 33% | 18% | 16% |
| 2026-07-28 | 90% | 81% | 76% | 50% | 54% | 36% | 18% | 16% |
| 2026-07-27 | 90% | 84% | 77% | 52% | 60% | 33% | 18% | 14% |
| 2026-07-26 | 92% | 84% | 77% | 46% | 60% | 34% | 18% | 15% |
| 2026-07-25 | 92% | 81% | 79% | 44% | 55% | 30% | 18% | 15% |
| 2026-07-24 | 92% | 84% | 79% | 42% | 56% | 24% | 24% | 10% |
| 2026-07-23 | 92% | 80% | 79% | 46% | 54% | 34% | 16% | 15% |
| 2026-07-22 | 87% | 86% | 74% | 56% | 50% | 36% | 22% | 12% |
| 2026-07-21 | 88% | 86% | 74% | 54% | 50% | 37% | 22% | 14% |
| 2026-07-20 | 90% | 83% | 74% | 48% | 51% | 37% | 16% | 16% |
| 2026-07-19 | 90% | 86% | 72% | 48% | 51% | 34% | 17% | 16% |
| 2026-07-18 | 90% | 87% | 70% | 52% | 51% | 37% | 20% | 16% |
| 2026-07-17 | 92% | 85% | 74% | 51% | 52% | 38% | 16% | 15% |
| 2026-07-16 | 90% | 76% | 78% | 48% | 58% | 39% | 16% | 15% |
| 2026-07-15 | 91% | 78% | 78% | 46% | 67% | 55% | 16% | 13% |
| 2026-07-14 | 80% | 79% | 75% | 36% | 64% | 38% | 38% | 22% |
| 2026-07-13 | 81% | 76% | 74% | 38% | 63% | 26% | 40% | 21% |
| 2026-07-12 | 80% | 78% | 74% | 40% | 55% | 26% | 40% | 21% |
| 2026-07-11 | 80% | 75% | 78% | 37% | 50% | 28% | 40% | 22% |
| 2026-07-10 | 80% | 64% | — | 38% | 33% | 29% | 40% | 21% |
| 2026-07-09 | 80% | 44% | — | 43% | 39% | 30% | 26% | 24% |
| 2026-07-08 | 80% | 76% | — | 44% | 40% | 32% | 25% | 17% |
| 2026-07-07 | 80% | 76% | — | 44% | 40% | 44% | 24% | 17% |
| 2026-07-06 * | 76% | 62% | 78% | 5% | 45% | 18% | 18% | 13% |
| 2026-07-05 * | 74% | 90% | 83% | 5% | 45% | 12% | 5% | 12% |
| 2026-07-04 * | 73% | 75% | 79% | 67% | 69% | 22% | 11% | 17% |
| 2026-07-03 * | 75% | 75% | 78% | 37% | 70% | 11% | 10% | 19% |
| 2026-07-02 * | 4% | 2% | 3% | 36% | 69% | 32% | 85% | 41% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call” for 28 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, M&A / Acquisition leads the field at 84%. The final tracked chance for M&A / Acquisition has risen from 80% to 84%, ranging between 80% and 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.