Final tracked odds
As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 69%.
▲ 7 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since September 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026
69%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 62% | 69% | ▲ 7 |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 69% |
| 2026-10-30 | 62% |
| 2026-10-29 | 64% |
| 2026-10-21 | — |
| 2026-10-20 | — |
| 2026-10-19 | — |
| 2026-10-18 | — |
| 2026-10-17 | — |
| 2026-10-16 | — |
| 2026-10-15 | — |
| 2026-10-14 | — |
| 2026-10-13 | — |
| 2026-10-12 | — |
| 2026-10-08 | 73% |
| 2026-10-06 | 74% |
| 2026-10-05 | 74% |
| 2026-09-27 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 69%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 74% on October 5, 2026 to 69% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 62% and 74%. The final reading of 69% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026” for 6 days, since September 18, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 69%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 74% to 69%, ranging between 62% and 74% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.