Final tracked odds
As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 7%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 1, 2026
7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 7% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 7% |
| 2026-08-10 | 7% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 7% |
| 2026-08-07 | 7% |
| 2026-08-06 | 8% |
| 2026-08-05 | 8% |
| 2026-08-04 | 8% |
| 2026-08-03 | 9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 9% |
| 2026-08-01 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on August 1, 2026 to 7% on September 1, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026” for 11 days, since August 1, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 7%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 9% to 7%, ranging between 6% and 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.