Politics · tracked since September 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 7, 2026
Final tracked odds
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 8% on September 7, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Sep 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Cury | 8% | 9% | — |
| Date | Augusto Cury |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | 9% |
| 2026-09-06 | 8% |
| 2026-09-03 | 10% |
| 2026-09-02 | 8% |
| 2026-09-01 * | 3% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Augusto Cury finish 5th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 4 days, since September 2, 2026. As of September 7, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 9%, ranging between 8% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 7, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.