Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?

As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on October 7, 2026 to 3% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 5 points.

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 8%. The current reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.

▼ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 14	Today	Move
Yes	8%	3%	▼ 6

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-11-04	3%
2026-10-14	8%
2026-10-13	6%
2026-10-12	6%
2026-10-11	6%
2026-10-10	6%
2026-10-09	8%
2026-10-08	8%
2026-10-07	8%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?: As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on October 7, 2026 to 3% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 8%. The current reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026” for 9 days, since October 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.