Final tracked odds
As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since August 26, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 1, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2% | 4% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 4% |
| 2026-08-31 | 2% |
| 2026-08-30 | 2% |
| 2026-08-29 | 4% |
| 2026-08-27 | 4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 8% |
| 2026-08-25 * | 2% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on August 26, 2026 to 4% on September 1, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2027” for 6 days, since August 26, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 4%, ranging between 2% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.