Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 86%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
86%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85% | 86% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 86% |
| 2026-08-30 | 85% |
| 2026-08-29 | 85% |
| 2026-08-28 | 83% |
| 2026-08-27 | 82% |
| 2026-08-26 | 75% |
| 2026-08-25 | 76% |
| 2026-08-24 | 74% |
| 2026-08-23 | 74% |
| 2026-08-22 | 80% |
| 2026-08-21 | 81% |
| 2026-08-20 | 77% |
| 2026-08-19 | 75% |
| 2026-07-31 | 40% |
| 2026-07-30 | 35% |
| 2026-07-18 | 34% |
| 2026-07-17 | 25% |
| 2026-07-16 | 19% |
| 2026-07-15 | 28% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 86%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 15, 2026 to 86% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 58 points.
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 19% and 86%. The final reading of 86% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026” for 19 days, since July 15, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 86%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 28% to 86%, ranging between 19% and 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.