Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 11% on August 28, 2026 to 14% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 3 points.

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 14%. The final reading of 14% sits at the top of that range.

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 6, 2026

14%

Final tracked odds

As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.

▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 14% on September 6, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 1	Today	Move
Before Nov 1, 2026	11%	14%	▲ 3

Full history table

Date	Before Nov 1, 2026
2026-09-06	14%
2026-09-01	11%
2026-08-31	10%
2026-08-30	10%
2026-08-29	9%
2026-08-28	11%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 11% on August 28, 2026 to 14% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 14%. The final reading of 14% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026” for 6 days, since August 28, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 11% to 14%, ranging between 9% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.