Final tracked odds
As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 54%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 20 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 20, 2026
54%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 54% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 54% |
| 2026-09-19 | 50% |
| 2026-09-18 | 52% |
| 2026-09-17 | 44% |
| 2026-09-16 | 39% |
| 2026-09-15 | 38% |
| 2026-09-14 | 38% |
| 2026-09-13 | 34% |
| 2026-09-12 | 38% |
| 2026-09-11 | 38% |
| 2026-09-10 | 44% |
| 2026-09-09 | 42% |
| 2026-09-08 | 30% |
| 2026-09-07 | 24% |
| 2026-09-06 | 26% |
| 2026-07-19 | 68% |
| 2026-07-18 | 68% |
| 2026-07-17 | 68% |
| 2026-07-16 | 68% |
| 2026-07-15 | 69% |
| 2026-07-14 | 71% |
| 2026-07-13 | 71% |
| 2026-07-11 | 62% |
| 2026-07-10 | 62% |
| 2026-07-09 | 60% |
| 2026-07-08 | 69% |
| 2026-07-07 | 68% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 20, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 54%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 27 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 68% on July 7, 2026 to 54% on September 20, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 27 tracked days the odds ranged between 24% and 71%. The final reading of 54% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 27 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 20, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 54%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 68% to 54%, ranging between 24% and 71% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 20, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.