Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 9%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 15 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 14, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 9% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 9% |
| 2026-09-05 | 10% |
| 2026-09-04 | 10% |
| 2026-09-03 | 10% |
| 2026-09-02 | 10% |
| 2026-09-01 | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 24% |
| 2026-08-18 | 11% |
| 2026-08-17 | 13% |
| 2026-08-16 | 11% |
| 2026-08-14 | 14% |
| 2026-08-13 | 14% |
| 2026-08-12 | 18% |
| 2026-08-11 | 18% |
| 2026-08-10 | 20% |
| 2026-08-09 | 24% |
| 2026-08-08 | 12% |
| 2026-08-07 | 19% |
| 2026-08-06 | 10% |
| 2026-08-05 | 9% |
| 2026-08-04 | 10% |
| 2026-08-03 | 9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 9% |
| 2026-08-01 | 9% |
| 2026-07-15 | 12% |
| 2026-07-14 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 26 tracked days the odds held near 8%, ending at 9% on September 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 26 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 24%. The current reading of 9% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026” for 26 days, since July 14, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 9%. The chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 9%, ranging between 8% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.