Final tracked odds
As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 13%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
World Cup · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 10, 2026
13%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 13% | 13% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Spain |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 13% |
| 2026-08-09 | 13% |
| 2026-08-08 | 13% |
| 2026-08-07 | 13% |
| 2026-08-06 | 14% |
| 2026-08-05 | 13% |
| 2026-08-04 | 13% |
| 2026-08-03 | 14% |
| 2026-08-02 | 15% |
| 2026-08-01 | 16% |
| 2026-07-31 | 16% |
| 2026-07-30 | 16% |
| 2026-07-29 | 17% |
| 2026-07-28 | 16% |
| 2026-07-27 | 16% |
| 2026-07-26 | 17% |
| 2026-07-25 | 17% |
| 2026-07-24 | 17% |
| 2026-07-23 | 17% |
| 2026-07-22 | 17% |
| 2026-07-21 | 17% |
| 2026-07-20 | 18% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 13%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 20, 2026 to 13% on August 10, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup” for 22 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 13%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 18% to 13%, ranging between 13% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.