Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 96%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
96%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96% | 96% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 96% |
| 2026-08-30 | 96% |
| 2026-08-29 | 96% |
| 2026-08-28 | 96% |
| 2026-08-27 | 96% |
| 2026-08-26 | 96% |
| 2026-08-25 | 96% |
| 2026-08-05 | 96% |
| 2026-08-04 | 96% |
| 2026-08-03 | 96% |
| 2026-08-02 | 96% |
| 2026-08-01 | 96% |
| 2026-07-27 | 96% |
| 2026-07-21 | 97% |
| 2026-07-20 | 97% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 15 tracked days the odds held near 97%, ending at 96% on August 31, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled” for 15 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 96%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 97% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.