Final tracked odds
As of October 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 99.0%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 29, 2026
99.0%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98.6% | 99.0% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 99.0% |
| 2026-10-28 | 98.6% |
| 2026-10-27 | 97% |
| 2026-08-31 | 96% |
| 2026-08-30 | 96% |
| 2026-08-29 | 96% |
| 2026-08-28 | 96% |
| 2026-08-27 | 96% |
| 2026-08-26 | 96% |
| 2026-08-25 | 96% |
| 2026-08-05 | 96% |
| 2026-08-04 | 96% |
| 2026-08-03 | 96% |
| 2026-08-02 | 96% |
| 2026-08-01 | 96% |
| 2026-07-27 | 96% |
| 2026-07-21 | 97% |
| 2026-07-20 | 97% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 99.0%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 97% on July 20, 2026 to 99.0% on October 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled” for 18 days, since July 20, 2026. As of October 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 99.0%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 97% to 99.0%, ranging between 96% and 99.0% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 29, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.