Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 15, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
0.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% | 0.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-31 | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-29 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-25 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-23 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 1.2% |
| 2026-07-20 | 3% |
| 2026-07-19 | 4% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on July 15, 2026 to 0.4% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting” for 22 days, since July 15, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 0.4%, ranging between 0.4% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.