Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — how much did the odds move?

Barely. Across 13 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 3% on August 31, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Economy · tracked since July 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 30	Today	Move
Yes	3%	3%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-31	3%
2026-08-30	3%
2026-08-29	3%
2026-08-28	3%
2026-08-27	4%
2026-08-26	4%
2026-08-25	3%
2026-08-24	4%
2026-08-23	3%
2026-07-19	3%
2026-07-18	3%
2026-07-17	3%
2026-07-14	3%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027 — how much did the odds move?: Barely. Across 13 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 3% on August 31, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027” for 13 days, since July 14, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.