Everything Else · tracked since October 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
Final tracked odds
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 92% on October 19, 2026. Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% won.
| Outcome | Oct 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% | 96% | 92% | ▼ 4 |
| Date | Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 92% |
| 2026-10-14 | 96% |
| 2026-10-13 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins be at least 1%” for 3 days, since October 13, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 92%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 92%, ranging between 92% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.