Final tracked odds
As of October 26, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?
Politics · tracked since October 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 26, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa, 2-4% | 13% | 12% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Gina Hinojosa, 2-4% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 12% |
| 2026-10-25 | 13% |
| 2026-10-24 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4% — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4% — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on October 24, 2026 to 12% on October 26, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%” for 3 days, since October 24, 2026. As of October 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 12%, ranging between 8% and 13% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.