Final tracked odds
As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 10, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 2% |
| 2026-08-09 | 2% |
| 2026-08-08 | 3% |
| 2026-08-07 | 3% |
| 2026-08-06 | 3% |
| 2026-08-05 | 3% |
| 2026-08-04 | 3% |
| 2026-08-03 | 3% |
| 2026-08-02 | 3% |
| 2026-08-01 | 3% |
| 2026-07-20 | 2% |
| 2026-07-12 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 12 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 2% on August 10, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026” for 12 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 3% to 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.