Final tracked odds
As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 4, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 3% |
| 2026-09-03 | 3% |
| 2026-09-02 | 3% |
| 2026-09-01 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 3% on September 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026” for 5 days, since August 1, 2026. As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.