Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 2% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 2% |
| 2026-11-03 | 4% |
| 2026-11-02 | 4% |
| 2026-11-01 | 4% |
| 2026-10-31 | 4% |
| 2026-10-30 | 5% |
| 2026-10-29 | 4% |
| 2026-10-28 | 3% |
| 2026-10-27 | 3% |
| 2026-10-26 | 2% |
| 2026-10-24 | 2% |
| 2026-10-23 | 2% |
| 2026-10-22 | 2% |
| 2026-10-21 | 2% |
| 2026-10-20 | 2% |
| 2026-10-19 | 2% |
| 2026-10-18 | 2% |
| 2026-10-17 | 2% |
| 2026-10-16 | 2% |
| 2026-10-15 | 2% |
| 2026-10-14 | 2% |
| 2026-10-13 | 3% |
| 2026-10-12 | 3% |
| 2026-10-11 | 3% |
| 2026-10-10 | 3% |
| 2026-10-09 | 3% |
| 2026-10-08 | 3% |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% |
| 2026-10-05 | 3% |
| 2026-10-04 | 3% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 3% |
| 2026-10-01 | 3% |
| 2026-09-30 | 3% |
| 2026-09-29 | 3% |
| 2026-09-28 | 3% |
| 2026-09-27 | 3% |
| 2026-09-26 | 2% |
| 2026-09-25 | 2% |
| 2026-09-24 | 3% |
| 2026-09-23 | 3% |
| 2026-09-22 | 3% |
| 2026-09-21 | 3% |
| 2026-09-19 | 2% |
| 2026-09-18 | 3% |
| 2026-09-17 | 3% |
| 2026-09-16 | 3% |
| 2026-09-15 | 2% |
| 2026-09-14 | 2% |
| 2026-09-13 | 2% |
| 2026-09-12 | 2% |
| 2026-09-11 | 2% |
| 2026-09-10 | 2% |
| 2026-09-09 | 2% |
| 2026-09-04 | 3% |
| 2026-09-03 | 3% |
| 2026-09-02 | 3% |
| 2026-09-01 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 60 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on August 1, 2026 to 2% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026” for 60 days, since August 1, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.