Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 92%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be at least 45 wide film releases in Q4 2026?
Culture · tracked since August 27, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
92%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 45 | 94% | 92% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | At least 45 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 92% |
| 2026-09-01 | 94% |
| 2026-08-31 | 92% |
| 2026-08-30 | 92% |
| 2026-08-29 | 96% |
| 2026-08-28 | 94% |
| 2026-08-27 | 84% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be at least 45 wide film releases in Q4 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 92%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be at least 45 wide film releases in Q4 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 84% on August 27, 2026 to 92% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Will there be at least 45 wide film releases in Q4 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 84% and 96%. The current reading of 92% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be at least 45 wide film releases in Q4 2026” for 7 days, since August 27, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 92%. The chance for a yes has risen from 84% to 92%, ranging between 84% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.