Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, July 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 20 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 7, 2026 to 2% on July 26, 2026 — a change of 4 points.

Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 20 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 8%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 26, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of July 26, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 2% on July 26, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 25	Today	Move
1	2%	2%	—

Full history table

Date	1
2026-07-26	2%
2026-07-25	2%
2026-07-24	4%
2026-07-23	2%
2026-07-22	2%
2026-07-21	4%
2026-07-20	4%
2026-07-19	4%
2026-07-18	4%
2026-07-17	4%
2026-07-16	4%
2026-07-15	6%
2026-07-14	6%
2026-07-13	6%
2026-07-12	6%
2026-07-11	8%
2026-07-10	6%
2026-07-09	6%
2026-07-08	6%
2026-07-07	6%
2026-07-06 *	9%
2026-07-05 *	6%
2026-07-04 *	5%
2026-07-03 *	4%
2026-07-02 *	3%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, July 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 20 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 7, 2026 to 2% on July 26, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 20 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 8%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Trump make 1 trips to Mar-a-Lago as President in Jul 2026” for 20 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.