Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 11 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 23, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 8% | ▼ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 8% |
| 2026-11-02 | 14% |
| 2026-10-31 | 15% |
| 2026-10-30 | 15% |
| 2026-10-29 | 17% |
| 2026-10-28 | 19% |
| 2026-10-27 | 20% |
| 2026-10-26 | 25% |
| 2026-10-25 | 21% |
| 2026-10-24 | 25% |
| 2026-10-23 | 21% |
| 2026-08-31 | 26% |
| 2026-08-29 | 32% |
| 2026-08-28 | 32% |
| 2026-08-27 | 32% |
| 2026-08-26 | 32% |
| 2026-08-25 | 34% |
| 2026-08-24 | 35% |
| 2026-08-23 | 36% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on August 23, 2026 to 8% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 28 points.
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 36%. The current reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026” for 19 days, since August 23, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.