Edition of July 8, 2026

Edition of July 8, 2026 · built from 8,682 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 9:24 AM ET.

72%

Today’s Number

Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 8, 2026?

Market-consensus odds put 65° to 66° at 72% this morning. · ▲ 66 points overnight

What changed

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Question		Odds
Moana Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 55	Culture	11% ▼ 55 7d: ▼ 55
Will the minimum temperature be >77° on Jul 8, 2026? 78° or above	News	91% ▲ 72 7d: ▲ 72
Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 8, 2026? 65° to 66°	News	72% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66
Will average gas prices be above $3.820? Above 3.820	Everything Else	64% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 58
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 72.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $72.99	Commodities	76% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42
Will UAE Team Emirates-XRG win the 2026 Tour de France? UAE Team Emirates-XRG	Everything Else	26% ▼ 52 7d: ▼ 52
Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jul 8, 2026? 73° to 74°	News	97% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 53
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 76 USD/Bbl on July 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $76	Commodities	88% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47
Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026? Before Jul 9, 2026	Politics	34% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 31
Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)? July 6	Everything Else	57% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48

Still open

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Question		Odds
Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles in 3 days	World Cup	36% —
Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles in 4 days	UFC	36% —
Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles in 5 days	Tennis	66% —
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days	World Cup	33% —
Will Trinity and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8? Trinity and Bryce · settles in 54 days	Everything Else	72% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7
France vs Morocco: To Advance Morocco advances · settles tomorrow	World Cup	22% —
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days	World Cup	19% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days	World Cup	19% —
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days	World Cup	16% —
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 175 days	Everything Else	14% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Question		Likelihood
Will Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway fight occur before Jul 13, 2026? Before Jul 13, 2026 · settles in 5 days	UFC	93.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7
The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 5 days	Culture	98.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Logan Zapp win the Zapp vs Bennour Dit Sahli: M15 Monastir Round of 32 match? Logan Zapp · settles today	Tennis	96.5% —
Will Donald Trump make above 220 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 5, 2026? >220 · settles in 4 days	Everything Else	95.0% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 70.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $70.99 · settles today	Commodities	96.5% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10? Above $4.00 · settles in 2 days	Everything Else	98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will xperiment by Ken Carson have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K · settles in 4 days	Culture	96.5% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 69.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $69.99 · settles today	Commodities	98.0% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8
Will the S&P 500 be above 7419.9999 on Jul 8, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,420 or above · settles today	Markets	96.5% —
Will the S&P 500 be above 7414.9999 on Jul 8, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,415 or above · settles today	Markets	97.5% —