Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 4:01 AM ET

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 — what are the odds?

As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?

Up. Over the 121 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 7, 2026 to 16% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 4 points.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 121 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 30%. The current reading of 16% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027” for 121 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The chance for a yes has risen from 12% to 16%, ranging between 12% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

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