Edition of July 10, 2026

Edition of July 10, 2026 · built from 8,973 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 8:40 AM ET.

26%

Today’s Number

Will Ryan Colby win the Arseneault vs Colby: M25 Laval Round of 16 match?

Market-consensus odds put Ryan Colby at 26% this morning. · ▼ 45 points overnight

What changed

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Question		Odds
Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026? Missouri	Everything Else	6% ▼ 56 7d: ▼ 80
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million	Culture	12% ▼ 77 7d: ▼ 84
Will Ryan Colby win the Arseneault vs Colby: M25 Laval Round of 16 match? Ryan Colby	Tennis	26% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45
#2 US Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? I Will Find You: Limited Series	Culture	79% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62
Will Marc Guehi start for England? Marc Guehi starts for England	World Cup	30% ▼ 63 7d: ▼ 63
What will the announcers say during Spain vs Belgium? Gianni / Infantino	World Cup	14% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 38
Will Kavan win Love Island UK Season 13? Kavan	Everything Else	57% ▲ 54 7d: ▲ 42
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10? Above $6.00	Everything Else	86% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 84
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on July 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $2.999	Commodities	28% ▼ 64 7d: ▼ 68
Yomiuri Giants vs Yokohama DeNA BayStars winner? Yomiuri Giants	Sports	4% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42

Still open

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Question		Odds
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days	World Cup	39% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6
Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles tomorrow	World Cup	36% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles tomorrow	UFC	34% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Spain vs Belgium: To Advance Spain advances · settles today	World Cup	74% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy · settles tomorrow	Golf	20% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 11
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days	World Cup	18% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 1
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days	World Cup	16% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 2
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days	World Cup	16% —
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 173 days	Everything Else	16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3
Will Alexander Zverev win the Fery vs Zverev: Semifinal match? Alexander Zverev · settles today	Tennis	88% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Question		Likelihood
Will Yannik Kelm win the Paardekooper vs Kelm: M25 The Hague Quarterfinal match? Yannik Kelm · settles today	Tennis	97.5% —
Will Kenzie be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kenzie · settles tomorrow	Everything Else	95.5% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway fight occur before Jul 13, 2026? Before Jul 13, 2026 · settles in 3 days	UFC	96.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 9
Will Dylan be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Dylan · settles tomorrow	Everything Else	95.5% — 7d: ▲ 2
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 69.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $69.49 · settles today	Commodities	97.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4
The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles in 3 days	Culture	93.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 8
Will xperiment by Ken Carson have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K · settles in 2 days	Culture	98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 68.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $68.49 · settles today	Commodities	98.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2
Will the minimum temperature be >64° on Jul 10, 2026? 65° or above · settles tomorrow	News	96.0% —
Will the minimum temperature be >70° on Jul 10, 2026? 71° or above · settles tomorrow	News	94.5% —