Edition of July 12, 2026

Edition of July 12, 2026 · built from 8,373 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 11:44 AM ET.

72%

Today’s Number

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10?

Market-consensus odds put Si Woo Kim at 72% this morning. · ▲ 58 points overnight

What changed

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Question		Odds
Will the minimum temperature be >73° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° or above	News	98% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 82
Genesis Scottish Open: Will John Keefer finish top 20? John Keefer	Golf	96% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 85
Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Jul 12, 2026? 70° or above	News	96% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66
Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10? Si Woo Kim	Golf	72% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 57
Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 140K	Culture	88% ▲ 57 7d: ▲ 6
Ferroviario vs Gremio Novorizontino Winner? Ferroviario	Sports	80% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42
Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy	Golf	2% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 7
Will the minimum temperature be 55-56° on Jul 12, 2026? 55° to 56°	News	96% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66
Will the high temp in LA be 74-75° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° to 75°	News	4% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 44
ISCO Championship: Will Ben Silverman finish top 20? Ben Silverman	Golf	72% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 61

Still open

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Question		Odds
France vs Spain: To Advance France advances · settles in 2 days	World Cup	60% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days	World Cup	39% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6
Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? France vs Argentina · settles in 7 days	World Cup	28% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Genesis Scottish Open? Matt Fitzpatrick ·	Golf	26% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 21
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days	World Cup	22% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 5
Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles today	Tennis	80% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 14
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days	World Cup	20% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days	World Cup	19% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 171 days	Everything Else	16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4
Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 7 days	Golf	12% — 7d: ▼ 4

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Question		Likelihood
England vs India Winner? India · settles in 3 days	Sports	98.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 65
Ireland vs West Indies Winner? West Indies · settles today	Sports	98.5% —
The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles today	Culture	94.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 47
Will average gas prices be above $3.860? Above 3.860 · settles today	Everything Else	98.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 96
Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Above 100 · settles tomorrow	Everything Else	98.5% — 7d: ▲ 1
Top US Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 · settles tomorrow	Culture	98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 20
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $1.999 · settles in 5 days	Commodities	98.5% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 70.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $70.99 · settles tomorrow	Commodities	93.5% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31
Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Jul 12, 2026? 70° or above · settles tomorrow	News	95.5% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66
Will the minimum temperature be >73° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° or above · settles tomorrow	News	98.5% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 82