Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 19% on July 20, 2026 to 6% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 13 points.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 19%. The final reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 31, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.

▼ 14 since the previous update. ▼ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 20	Today	Move
Yes	19%	6%	▼ 14

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-07-31	6%
2026-07-20	19%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 19% on July 20, 2026 to 6% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 13 points.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 19%. The final reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31” for 2 days, since July 20, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 19% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 19% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.