Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 4, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 16% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 16% |
| 2026-09-05 | 14% |
| 2026-09-04 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on September 4, 2026 to 16% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026” for 3 days, since September 4, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The chance for a yes has risen from 14% to 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.