The Morning Line

How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026

98%

Final tracked odds

As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds make Above 11 the most likely outcome at 98%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 98% on August 17, 2026. Above 11 won.

How the odds have moved

Above 11Above 12Above 13Above 14Above 15
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 28Aug 1Aug 5Aug 9Aug 17Above 11 — Jul 29: 90%Above 11 — Jul 30: 94%Above 11 — Jul 31: 92%Above 11 — Aug 1: 92%Above 11 — Aug 2: 96%Above 11 — Aug 3: 94%Above 11 — Aug 4: 96%Above 11 — Aug 5: 95%Above 11 — Aug 6: 95%Above 11 — Aug 7: 94%Above 11 — Aug 8: 94%Above 11 — Aug 9: 94%Above 11 — Aug 10: 94%Above 11 — Aug 11: 98%Above 11 — Aug 16: 98%Above 11 — Aug 17: 98%98%Above 12 — Jul 28: 70%Above 12 — Jul 29: 76%Above 12 — Jul 30: 76%Above 12 — Jul 31: 74%Above 12 — Aug 1: 90%Above 12 — Aug 2: 86%Above 12 — Aug 3: 88%Above 12 — Aug 4: 86%Above 12 — Aug 5: 86%Above 12 — Aug 6: 86%Above 12 — Aug 7: 86%Above 12 — Aug 8: 84%Above 12 — Aug 9: 84%Above 12 — Aug 10: 82%Above 12 — Aug 11: 86%Above 12 — Aug 16: 96%Above 12 — Aug 17: 96%Above 13 — Jul 29: 55%Above 13 — Jul 30: 55%Above 13 — Jul 31: 50%Above 13 — Aug 1: 54%Above 13 — Aug 2: 58%Above 13 — Aug 3: 56%Above 13 — Aug 4: 52%Above 13 — Aug 5: 53%Above 13 — Aug 6: 52%Above 13 — Aug 7: 56%Above 13 — Aug 8: 55%Above 13 — Aug 9: 55%Above 13 — Aug 10: 48%Above 13 — Aug 11: 52%Above 13 — Aug 16: 76%Above 13 — Aug 17: 74%Above 14 — Jul 29: 19%Above 14 — Jul 30: 18%Above 14 — Jul 31: 16%Above 14 — Aug 1: 20%Above 14 — Aug 2: 14%Above 14 — Aug 3: 14%Above 14 — Aug 4: 18%Above 14 — Aug 5: 16%Above 14 — Aug 6: 15%Above 14 — Aug 7: 12%Above 14 — Aug 8: 12%Above 14 — Aug 9: 10%Above 14 — Aug 10: 8%Above 14 — Aug 11: 8%Above 14 — Aug 16: 20%Above 14 — Aug 17: 20%Above 15 — Jul 29: 4%Above 15 — Jul 30: 6%Above 15 — Jul 31: 4%Above 15 — Aug 1: 6%Above 15 — Aug 2: 4%Above 15 — Aug 3: 6%Above 15 — Aug 4: 4%Above 15 — Aug 5: 4%Above 15 — Aug 6: 4%Above 15 — Aug 7: 4%Above 15 — Aug 8: 4%Above 15 — Aug 9: 4%Above 15 — Aug 10: 2%Above 15 — Aug 11: 2%Above 15 — Aug 16: 4%Above 15 — Aug 17: 4%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 16TodayMove
Above 1198%98%▲ 1
Above 1296%96%—
Above 1376%74%▼ 3
Above 1420%20%▼ 1
Above 154%4%▲ 1
Above 162%2%—
Full history table
DateAbove 11Above 12Above 13Above 14Above 15Above 16
2026-08-1798%96%74%20%4%2%
2026-08-1698%96%76%20%4%2%
2026-08-1198%86%52%8%2%2%
2026-08-1094%82%48%8%2%2%
2026-08-0994%84%55%10%4%2%
2026-08-0894%84%55%12%4%2%
2026-08-0794%86%56%12%4%2%
2026-08-0695%86%52%15%4%2%
2026-08-0595%86%53%16%4%2%
2026-08-0496%86%52%18%4%2%
2026-08-0394%88%56%14%6%2%
2026-08-0296%86%58%14%4%2%
2026-08-0192%90%54%20%6%2%
2026-07-3192%74%50%16%4%2%
2026-07-3094%76%55%18%6%2%
2026-07-2990%76%55%19%4%—
2026-07-28—70%————

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, Above 11 led at 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 90% on July 29, 2026 to 98% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 90% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026” for 16 days, since July 28, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, Above 11 leads the field at 98%. The final tracked chance for Above 11 has risen from 90% to 98%, ranging between 90% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.