Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Above 8 the most likely outcome at 90%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 28, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
90%
How the odds have moved
Above 8Above 9Above 10Above 11Above 12
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8 | 94% | 90% | ▼ 4 |
| Above 9 | 76% | 74% | ▼ 3 |
| Above 10 | — | 36% | — |
| Above 11 | — | 17% | — |
| Above 12 | — | 4% | — |
| Above 13 | — | 2% | — |
| Above 14 | — | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Above 8 | Above 9 | Above 10 | Above 11 | Above 12 | Above 13 | Above 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 90% | 74% | 36% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 2026-09-05 | 94% | 76% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 94% | 77% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | 95% | 77% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 94% | 80% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 88% | 78% | 45% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 3% |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — | 64% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 2% |
| 2026-08-30 | — | — | 72% | 50% | 23% | 5% | 2% |
| 2026-08-29 | — | — | 68% | 50% | 22% | — | 4% |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | 64% | 32% | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Above 8 leads at 90%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 88% on September 1, 2026 to 90% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 88% and 95%. The current reading of 90% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026” for 6 days, since August 28, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Above 8 leads the field at 90%. The chance for Above 8 has risen from 88% to 90%, ranging between 88% and 95% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.