Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 34% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 34% |
| 2026-09-05 | 34% |
| 2026-08-31 | 33% |
| 2026-08-30 | 30% |
| 2026-08-29 | 26% |
| 2026-08-28 | 36% |
| 2026-08-27 | 41% |
| 2026-08-26 | 34% |
| 2026-08-25 | 34% |
| 2026-08-24 | 30% |
| 2026-08-23 | 22% |
| 2026-08-22 | 22% |
| 2026-08-21 | 25% |
| 2026-08-20 | 27% |
| 2026-08-19 | 22% |
| 2026-08-17 | 18% |
| 2026-08-15 | 18% |
| 2026-07-30 | 24% |
| 2026-07-29 | 24% |
| 2026-07-28 | 23% |
| 2026-07-26 | 30% |
| 2026-07-25 | 32% |
| 2026-07-24 | 33% |
| 2026-07-23 | 28% |
| 2026-07-22 | 30% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% |
| 2026-07-18 | 30% |
| 2026-07-17 | 30% |
| 2026-07-16 | 30% |
| 2026-07-15 | 30% |
| 2026-07-14 | 30% |
| 2026-07-13 | 30% |
| 2026-07-11 | 40% |
| 2026-07-10 | 46% |
| 2026-07-09 | 46% |
| 2026-07-07 | 46% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 36 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on July 7, 2026 to 34% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 36 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 46%. The current reading of 34% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch” for 36 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 46% to 34%, ranging between 18% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.