Final tracked odds
As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 2, 2026
0.2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-24 | 2% |
| 2026-07-21 | 4% |
| 2026-07-20 | 5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran invades Kuwait by August 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran invades Kuwait by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 5% on July 20, 2026 to 0.2% on September 2, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran invades Kuwait by August 31” for 5 days, since July 20, 2026. As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 5% to 0.2%, ranging between 0.2% and 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.