Final tracked odds
As of October 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran leadership change by November 30?
Everything Else · tracked since October 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 25, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 8% |
| 2026-10-24 | 8% |
| 2026-10-23 | 7% |
| 2026-10-22 | 8% |
| 2026-10-21 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran leadership change by November 30 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran leadership change by November 30 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 8%, ending at 8% on October 25, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran leadership change by November 30” for 5 days, since October 21, 2026. As of October 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.