Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 18%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
18%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 18% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 18% |
| 2026-09-05 | 18% |
| 2026-09-04 | 18% |
| 2026-09-03 | 16% |
| 2026-09-02 | 18% |
| 2026-09-01 | 25% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 18%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 25% on September 1, 2026 to 18% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 25%. The current reading of 18% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30” for 6 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 18%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 25% to 18%, ranging between 16% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.