Final tracked odds
As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 72%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Politics · tracked since August 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 1, 2026
72%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74% | 72% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 72% |
| 2026-08-23 | 74% |
| 2026-08-16 | 72% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 72%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31” for 3 days, since August 16, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 72%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 72% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.