Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 9, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 17 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 2% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 5% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on July 9, 2026 to 2% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026” for 7 days, since July 9, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.