Final tracked odds
As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 3, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 6% |
| 2026-09-02 | 6% |
| 2026-09-01 | 6% |
| 2026-08-18 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 5% |
| 2026-08-13 | 5% |
| 2026-08-12 | 5% |
| 2026-08-11 | 5% |
| 2026-08-10 | 5% |
| 2026-08-09 | 5% |
| 2026-08-08 | 5% |
| 2026-08-07 | 5% |
| 2026-08-06 | 5% |
| 2026-08-05 | 5% |
| 2026-08-04 | 5% |
| 2026-08-03 | 7% |
| 2026-08-02 | 7% |
| 2026-08-01 | 7% |
| 2026-07-31 | 7% |
| 2026-07-30 | 7% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-28 | 7% |
| 2026-07-27 | 7% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 5% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 5% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 32 tracked days the odds held near 5%, ending at 6% on September 3, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31” for 32 days, since July 13, 2026. As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 5% to 6%, ranging between 4% and 7% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.