Final tracked odds
As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 3, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 6% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 4% |
| 2026-08-09 | 4% |
| 2026-08-08 | 4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 4% |
| 2026-08-06 | 4% |
| 2026-08-05 | 4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 4% |
| 2026-08-03 | 4% |
| 2026-08-02 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 5% |
| 2026-07-21 | 6% |
| 2026-07-20 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 15 tracked days the odds held near 6%, ending at 6% on September 3, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch” for 15 days, since July 20, 2026. As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 6%, ranging between 4% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.