Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 33 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 7, 2026 to 24% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 33 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 26%. The final reading of 24% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31” for 33 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 22% to 24%, ranging between 20% and 26% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

More questions we track

• Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Everything Else 70%
• Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Everything Else 64%
• Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Everything Else 40%
• Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Everything Else 36% · completed