Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 36%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
36%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 36% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 36% |
| 2026-11-02 | 34% |
| 2026-11-01 | 28% |
| 2026-10-31 | 36% |
| 2026-10-30 | 36% |
| 2026-10-29 | 31% |
| 2026-10-28 | 38% |
| 2026-08-31 | 24% |
| 2026-08-30 | 22% |
| 2026-08-29 | 22% |
| 2026-08-28 | 20% |
| 2026-08-27 | 20% |
| 2026-08-26 | 20% |
| 2026-08-25 | 20% |
| 2026-08-24 | 20% |
| 2026-08-23 | 20% |
| 2026-08-22 | 22% |
| 2026-08-21 | 22% |
| 2026-07-31 | 22% |
| 2026-07-30 | 20% |
| 2026-07-29 | 22% |
| 2026-07-28 | 22% |
| 2026-07-27 | 22% |
| 2026-07-26 | 20% |
| 2026-07-25 | 21% |
| 2026-07-24 | 22% |
| 2026-07-23 | 22% |
| 2026-07-22 | 22% |
| 2026-07-21 | 21% |
| 2026-07-20 | 20% |
| 2026-07-16 | 22% |
| 2026-07-15 | 24% |
| 2026-07-14 | 24% |
| 2026-07-13 | 26% |
| 2026-07-12 | 25% |
| 2026-07-11 | 25% |
| 2026-07-10 | 23% |
| 2026-07-09 | 26% |
| 2026-07-08 | 22% |
| 2026-07-07 | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 36%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 40 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 7, 2026 to 36% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 40 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 38%. The final reading of 36% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31” for 40 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 36%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 22% to 36%, ranging between 20% and 38% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.