Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?

Politics · tracked since July 15, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what are the odds?

As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 33 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 15, 2026 to 8% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 8 points.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 33 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 19%. The current reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027” for 33 days, since July 15, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 16% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 19% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

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