Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?

Politics · tracked since July 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — how much did the odds move?

Barely. Across 32 tracked days the odds held near 16%, ending at 16% on August 31, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 32 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 19%. The final reading of 16% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027” for 32 days, since July 15, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 16% to 16%, ranging between 12% and 19% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

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