Final tracked odds
As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 13%.
▲ 6 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 4, 2026
13%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 13% | ▲ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 13% |
| 2026-09-03 | 8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 8% |
| 2026-09-01 | 8% |
| 2026-08-31 | 10% |
| 2026-08-30 | 8% |
| 2026-08-29 | 8% |
| 2026-08-28 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 8% |
| 2026-08-26 | 11% |
| 2026-08-25 | 12% |
| 2026-08-24 | 8% |
| 2026-08-23 | 8% |
| 2026-08-22 | 8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 8% |
| 2026-08-20 | 8% |
| 2026-08-19 | 8% |
| 2026-08-18 | 10% |
| 2026-08-17 | 10% |
| 2026-08-16 | 11% |
| 2026-08-15 | 12% |
| 2026-08-14 | 12% |
| 2026-08-13 | 12% |
| 2026-08-12 | 12% |
| 2026-08-11 | 14% |
| 2026-08-10 | 14% |
| 2026-08-09 | 14% |
| 2026-08-08 | 14% |
| 2026-08-07 | 14% |
| 2026-08-06 | 15% |
| 2026-08-05 | 14% |
| 2026-08-04 | 15% |
| 2026-08-03 | 14% |
| 2026-08-02 | 14% |
| 2026-08-01 | 16% |
| 2026-07-27 | 17% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 13%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 36 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 17% on July 27, 2026 to 13% on September 4, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 36 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 17%. The final reading of 13% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026” for 36 days, since July 27, 2026. As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 13%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 17% to 13%, ranging between 8% and 17% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.