Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 29, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 6% |
| 2026-11-02 | 6% |
| 2026-11-01 | 6% |
| 2026-09-30 | 12% |
| 2026-09-29 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on September 29, 2026 to 6% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 12%. The current reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026” for 5 days, since September 29, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.