Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 25%.
▲ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
Politics · tracked since October 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
25%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 25% | ▲ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 25% |
| 2026-10-30 | 18% |
| 2026-10-29 | 24% |
| 2026-10-15 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 25%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on October 15, 2026 to 25% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 32%. The final reading of 25% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31” for 4 days, since October 15, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 25%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 25%, ranging between 18% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.