Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Trump out as President before 2027?
Politics · tracked since October 22, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 4% |
| 2026-11-03 | 4% |
| 2026-11-02 | 4% |
| 2026-11-01 | 3% |
| 2026-10-31 | 3% |
| 2026-10-30 | 4% |
| 2026-10-29 | 5% |
| 2026-10-27 | 4% |
| 2026-10-26 | 4% |
| 2026-10-22 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Trump out as President before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Trump out as President before 2027 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 10 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 4% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Trump out as President before 2027” for 10 days, since October 22, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has held near 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.