Final tracked odds
As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
▼ 8 since the previous update. ▼ 18 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 2, 2026
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 34% | ▼ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 34% |
| 2026-09-01 | 42% |
| 2026-08-29 | 44% |
| 2026-08-28 | 42% |
| 2026-08-27 | 44% |
| 2026-08-26 | 51% |
| 2026-08-25 | 50% |
| 2026-08-24 | 50% |
| 2026-08-23 | 49% |
| 2026-08-22 | 47% |
| 2026-08-21 | 44% |
| 2026-08-20 | 51% |
| 2026-08-19 | 58% |
| 2026-08-18 | 42% |
| 2026-08-17 | 42% |
| 2026-08-16 | 44% |
| 2026-08-15 | 38% |
| 2026-08-14 | 36% |
| 2026-08-13 | 40% |
| 2026-08-12 | 40% |
| 2026-08-11 | 40% |
| 2026-08-10 | 40% |
| 2026-08-09 | 41% |
| 2026-08-08 | 40% |
| 2026-08-07 | 39% |
| 2026-08-06 | 46% |
| 2026-08-05 | 46% |
| 2026-08-04 | 46% |
| 2026-08-03 | 48% |
| 2026-08-02 | 48% |
| 2026-08-01 | 48% |
| 2026-07-20 | 46% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 32 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on July 20, 2026 to 34% on September 2, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 32 tracked days the odds ranged between 34% and 58%. The final reading of 34% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide” for 32 days, since July 20, 2026. As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 46% to 34%, ranging between 34% and 58% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.