US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 24, 2026 to 0.4% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 12 points.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.4% and 12%. The final reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 31, 2026

0.4%

Final tracked odds

As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 30	Today	Move
Yes	2%	0.4%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-07-31	0.4%
2026-07-30	2%
2026-07-29	5%
2026-07-24	12%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 24, 2026 to 0.4% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.4% and 12%. The final reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026” for 4 days, since July 24, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 0.4%, ranging between 0.4% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.