Final tracked odds
As of August 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 73%.
▲ 5 since the previous update. ▲ 17 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 5, 2026
73%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | 73% | ▲ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 73% |
| 2026-08-04 | 68% |
| 2026-08-03 | 58% |
| 2026-08-02 | 56% |
| 2026-08-01 | 38% |
| 2026-07-31 | 48% |
| 2026-07-08 | 56% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 73%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 56% on July 8, 2026 to 73% on August 5, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 73%. The final reading of 73% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended” for 7 days, since July 8, 2026. As of August 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 73%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 56% to 73%, ranging between 38% and 73% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.